Nicole has an avid interest in all things science. Overall, economic impacts at the community scale can be significant. The Arctic is warming at a rate of almost twice the global average. For example, storm-surge flooding in Charlottetown, which occurred six times between 1911 and 1998, is likely to occur every year by 2100 unless significant adaptation measures are implemented to protect the city (McCulloch et al., 2002). Brown et al., 2000; Nixon et al., 2003; Smith et al., 2005). The Arctic is an incredibly important and very fragile ecosystem – and it’s warming at a much faster rate than much of the rest of the world. The next reports will focus on climate change impacts, adaptation and resilience. A decrease in the winter diurnal temperature range across the country indicates that winter nights will likely warm more than winter days (Barrow et al., 2004). Although many areas of the country are expected to experience an increase in precipitation (see Figure 14), this may not be sufficient to offset the AET increase due to temperature rise. During the same period, winter and spring cooling trends (up to -2.5°C) were observed in parts of the eastern Arctic. "This is real on-the-ground stuff that is costing us right now.". Based on present trends, it is reasonable to foresee a sustained growth of the Canadian GDP and an increase in Canada's wealth. Box 500 Station A Toronto, ON Canada, M5W 1E6. Nevertheless, Canada has, on average, become wetter during the past half century, with mean precipitation across the country increasing by about 12 % (Environment Canada, 2003). The greatest differences are seen in the north and the interior of continental coast in the west. Since 2009, however, in eight out of nine years, these costs have ballooned up to $1 billion or more a year, with a $1.8 billion average. However, regional land subsidence in other regions, including most of the Atlantic coastline, has doubled the rate of local sea-level rise in some areas (McCulloch et al., 2002). During this time period, the greatest temperature increases have been observed in the Yukon and Northwest Territories. FIGURE 6: Observed (1981-2005) and projected (2006-2056) population of Canada according to three scenarios (Statistics Canada, 2005).larger image. Under medium-growth scenarios, the proportion of elderly is projected to almost double in the next 25 years and, by 2056, half the Canadian population would be over 47 years of age. Indigenous communities "are experiencing a loss of their way of life because of climate change. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2020) National Inventory Report 1990-2018: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Summer warming has been both more modest and more uniform in space, whereas warming in the autumn period has been largely confined to Arctic regions and British Columbia (Figure 8). Canadians may revel at the prospect of warmer weather, but with that comes a price — literally. Climate change describes a change in the average conditions — such as temperature and rainfall — in a region over a long period of time. A new study of forest fire data shows that wildfires in Canada have not been getting worse over the past 60 years. Climate Science 2050 A synthesis of climate change science and knowledge needs in Canada. comm., 2007. larger image. Every additional person increases carbon emissions — the rich more than the poor — and increases the number of climate change victims – the poor more than the rich. All regions of the country have experienced warming during more recent years (1966 -2003; McBean et al., 2005), including the eastern Arctic, where there has been a reversal from a cooling trend to a warming one, starting in the early 1990s (Huntington et al., 2005a; Nickels et al., 2006). These changes are already impacting human and natural systems (cf. Source: Environment Canada.larger image. Annual total snow amount has increased in some Arctic regions (Taylor et al., 2006), however, because higher temperatures induce higher humidity, which results in more precipitation. But you ain't seen nothin' yet. Canada from The World Bank: Data. decrease in maximum number of consecutive dry days, decrease in annual total snowfall (southern Canada), and. This demographic is associated with growth in secondary and tertiary industries, but has also been accompanied by an expansion of the urban areas themselves. Although natural resource-based industries, such as mining, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, make up only a small percentage of GDP at the national scale (see Table 7), they remain a key component of Canada's economy. Reports. These patterns are consistent with the observed trends presented above. These data, together with satellite data from the past 25 years or so, provide a detailed picture of how Canadian climate and associated biophysical variables have changed in recent decades. On a seasonal basis (Figure 8), temperature increases have been greater and more spatially variable during the winter and spring months. Regardless, the CPPI remains an invaluable tool for tracking and ranking the initiatives of countries worldwide in the fight against drastic climate change. ClimateData.ca is a climate data portal produced collaboratively by the country’s leading climate organizations and supported, in part, by the Government of Canada. In August, two brief thunderstorms caused widespread flooding in Toronto, bringing the downtown core to a standstill. Natural resources are also integral to many Aboriginal communities in Canada. The magnitude of the impacts of climate change on the Canadian economy is thus difficult to predict. The trend from 1979 to 2005, now showing a decline of more than 8% percent, is shown with a straight blue line. For example, in some parts of Canada, such as around Hudson Bay, land has continued to emerge despite increasing global sea levels. Air temperature is recorded around the world at weather stations and by weather balloons. The earth's atmosphere is like a blanket that keeps the planet warm. During the present century, temperature increases will be greatest in the high Arctic, and greater in the central portions of the country than along the east and west coasts (Figure 16). Although climate models vary in estimating the rate of ice decline (see Chapter 3), several scenarios indicate that large areas of the Arctic Ocean will be seasonally ice free before the end of the twenty-first century (Solomon et al., 2007). Climate change will impact a rapidly evolving Canadian economy, in which demographic, commercial and technological changes will exert strong influences on future outcomes. Details are, however, lacking. Both of these trends are expected to continue into the future. And, if we stick to a "business-as-usual" scenario — no change to our emissions — it's going to happen a lot sooner than scientists initially thought, according to a recently released Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The message is clear, he says: Canada needs to prepare for the future. This means less available precipitation during the growing season in important agricultural regions. The "X" symbols indicate areas where the trends are statistically significant Source: Zhang et al. That's good news for farmers, but there are also negative consequences. Further discussion of provincial and territorial trends is found in the regional chapters of this report. Regional differences in projected climate, sensitivity and factors influencing adaptive capacity (e.g. So, the impacts are real globally, and they're real here in Canada.". These values, however, are not easily reflected in traditional economic accounting. Source: Ross Brown, Environment Canada, pers. We are not on track to meet climate change targets. of automobiles, aircraft and pharmaceuticals) accounts for the largest share. (2005). References. Two key trends have accompanied this population growth: urbanization and aging. the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations), strongly influence sea-ice patterns (Barrow et al., 2004). It is mainly a tertiary economy: the services sector represents nearly 70% of GDP, whereas goods-producing industries make up about 30% (see Table 7). Using the median, the models (run by the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, or LAMPS at York University), Phillips says people living in Toronto could see 51 days a year above 30 C by 2050 and 77 by 2100. access to economic resources, population demographics) mean that vulnerability varies greatly across the country, both within and between regions. In all cases, these trends are expected to continue, with implications for future vulnerability. For example, in the medium-growth scenario, about one in 10 Canadians will be 80 years and over by 2056, compared with about one in 30 in 2005. Canada produces less than 1.5% of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The effects of a warming planet are going to be felt from coast to coast to coast. Winter warming by the 2050s is expected to be most pronounced in the Hudson Bay and high Arctic areas, and least in southwestern British Columbia and the southern Atlantic region. For example, the extent of Arctic sea ice during the late summer season has decreased by 8% since 1979 (Figure 12). Throughout most of southern Canada, precipitation increases are projected to be low (0 -10% by the 2050s) during the summer and fall months. Aggregate analysis tends to hide critical local impacts and imposed hardships. decrease in mean amount of daily precipitation. Comments on this story are moderated according to our Submission Guidelines. While it may seem like eastern Canada isn't seeing much of a change, it is, and it's catching up to the rest of the country. Future precipitation is more difficult to project, and changes are generally of lower statistical significance, than changes in temperature (Barrow et al., 2004). Over the past half century, changes in climate have resulted in increased temperatures throughout much of Canada, altered precipitation patterns, reduced sea-ice cover, shifting hydrological conditions and changes in some extreme weather events. In all the scenarios considered, natural increase would become negative in the medium or long term and migration would become Canada's only source of population growth. This is reflected in the wide range in model results for projected precipitation (see Figure 19). Note historical data presented are limited by data availability, and projected changes are derived from a range of global climate models using the emissions scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).larger image. (212) 419-8286. hadley.ward@statista.com. The pandemic is a cataclysmic event so big and disruptive that it can be measured in the planetary metrics of climate change. Data are presented as total change over the full 54 years of data, expressed in mm. Torontonians might not want to celebrate just yet, however: those warmer temperatures bring increased chances of freezing rain events. There is not a simple direct relationship between sea ice and temperature because complex interactions, associated with changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns (e.g. The proportion of elderly persons (age 65 and over) in Canada increased 3% between 1981 and 2005 (from 10 to 13%), and will continue to increase until 2056 under all projection scenarios (Statistics Canada, 2005). Some of the key ways in which climate change will impact the Canadian economy are categorized as follows: Limited data are available on the sensitivity or vulnerability of the services sector in Canada, which now dominates our economy. FIGURE 13: Trends in Canadian Arctic snow-cover duration, measured as change in days relative to 1990. Changes in temperature and precipitation during the past 50 to 100 years have led to changes in other variables, including sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, evaporation and sea level. "People say, well gee, the world's warmed up by 1 C in the last 135 years, but there are parts of Canada that have warmed in some seasons by four, four-and-half degrees in a 70-year period," Environment Canada's senior climatologist, David Phillips says. Canada’s Changing Climate Report, the first report in the series, assessed how and why Canada’s climate has changed and what changes are projected for the future. (2004) and Hengeveld et al. You will not receive a reply. "The report … sends a really strong message that the two degrees that we talked about previously is not really a guardrail anymore, and that we should be very careful about the future," said Pretis. Recent declines in the volume of glacial meltwater in western Canada (Demuth et al., 2002), and precipitation changes and increased evaporation elsewhere (linked to higher temperatures), have altered water resources across much of Canada (Shabbar and Skinner, 2004). On average, Canada has warmed by more than 1.3°C since 1948 (Figure 7), a rate of warming that is about twice the global average. "In Canada, now, the expression of extreme weather risk, the number one negative manifestation by far is flooding," said Blair Feltmate, head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo. Other populations considered more vulnerable to climate change include children, Aboriginal people, people with pre-existing health conditions and the poor (Health Canada, 2005). Blair notes that, from 1983 to 2008, the cost of catastrophic insurable events annually ranged from $250 million to $500 million. Climate change is the disruption in the long-term seasonal weather patterns that are caused by global warming.As of August 2020, the average temperature has risen over 1 degree Celsius, or about 2 degrees Fahrenheit, since 1880. Shallow permafrost temperatures increased during the last two to three decades of the twentieth century by 0.3 to 0.5 °C per decade in the Canadian high Arctic (Taylor et al., 2006), and ranged from no change to almost 1 °C per decade in the western Arctic (Smith et al., 2005). Relative sea-level changes in Canada will continue to exhibit similar patterns to those observed during the twentieth century. These changes, as well as their implications for the environment, the economy and society, are discussed in detail in the regional chapters of this report. "Some regions might benefit from longer growing seasons, but at the same time you have the impact of increased wildfires, for example, the smoke pollution that comes with that and the CO2 emissions," said Felix Pretis, an assistant professor at the University of Victoria who studies the economic impacts of climate change. Canada's population will continue to grow between now and 2056 under most scenarios analyzed by Statistics Canada (see Figure 6; Table 8). (2005).larger image. Impact modelling suggests that, although overall economic impacts may be slightly positive in the short term at moderate degrees of warming, further warming and associated changes in climate will overwhelm systems, causing net economic losses (Stern, 2006). These include the high climate sensitivity of many natural resources (agriculture, forestry and fisheries), as well as many factors related to lower adaptive capacity, including limited economic diversification, fewer economic resources available for adaptation, an aging population, and generally more restricted access to services (e.g. In July 2018, Montreal experienced 70 heat-related deaths as the city dealt with unusually hot temperatures into the 30s with stifling humidity that made it feel closer to 40 C. This summer, British Columbia experienced its worst fire season on record. In Canada, mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and global warming is a topic of central political concern. The cryosphere has responded to observed warming. National trends in precipitation (Figure 9) are more difficult to assess, primarily because of the discontinuous nature of precipitation and its various states (rain, snow and freezing rain). As sea level rises, the risk of storm-surge flooding increases. Annually averaged, the largest percentage increase in precipitation has occurred in the high Arctic, while parts of southern Canada (particularly the Prairies) have seen little change or even a decrease (Figure 10). Population increases are projected to be concentrated largely in the major urban areas of the most populous provinces of Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec. For enquiries, contact us. Beaufort Sea coast, much of the Atlantic coast and the Fraser River delta). For instance, more than 1600 Canadian communities are more than 30% reliant on one or more of these industries for their economic well-being (i.e. With a warming planet, we can expect to see more events like these, experts say. Actual evapotranspiration rates (AET) have, on average, increased in most regions of the country during the last 40 years (Table 10), although the trend is weak or inconsistent in some areas (Fernandes et al., 2007) due to limited availability of water to evaporate. FIGURE 16: Seasonal change in temperature across Canada by 2050 (relative to 1961-1990), based on the median of seven global climate models and using the emissions scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Canada’s current and projected climate changes: temperature, precipitation, ocean acidity and more. We reserve the right to close comments at any time. FIGURE 11: Changes in precipitation since 1950, by season. On average, the fraction of precipitation falling as intense events (the upper 10%) has been decreasing in southern Canada but increasing in northern Canada, particularly in the northeast. This diversity is highlighted by contrasting the various regional chapters of this assessment. 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